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Search resuls for: "Joseph Kalish"


8 mentions found


☆ These 5 recession indicators have escaped the danger zone after flashing economic red flags
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board
☆ The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe
☆ The decline in China's US Treasury holdings isn't as big as it seems
  + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The ongoing decline in China's US bond holdings is not as big as it seems, according to Ned Davis Research. "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," NDR said. "The rationale for using these conduits is that when added to China's Treasury holdings, they closely track China's foreign exchange reserves." "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," Kalish said. AdvertisementOne person who's not concerned about China reducing its Treasury holdings is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: Ned Davis, —, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, who's, Janet Yellen, Xi Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, US, Treasury Locations: China, Beijing, Belgium, Luxembourg, San Francisco
☆ Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could top 7%: Ned Davis Research
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors should be prepared for long-duration Treasury yields to reach 7% if the U.S. economy skirts a widely anticipated recession, Ned Davis Research warned in a note on Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are hovering near 16-year highs of 5% as investors price in rising U.S. federal deficits and the Federal Reserve's guidance that it will keep rates high until it is convinced that inflation is under control. Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Treasury sell-off could continue if the neutral rate of interest - the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary - rises due to a prolonged expansion. "So getting comfortable with a 5% 10-year Treasury is actually quite conservative," he wrote. With the potential for a worsening Treasury market sell-off, Kalish is bullish on gold and remains slightly underweight bonds, and favors large-cap equities over small-caps, he noted.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell, Treasury Department's, David Randall, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries
☆ The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. What it means for stocks
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.
Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S
☆ A key signal suggests job growth could plummet in coming months amid labor strikes and bad weather
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
A key signal suggests monthly job growth could plummet in the coming months, according to Ned Davis Research. The research firm highlighted that a slow-down in temporary hiring services is the canary in the coal mine. The investment research firm highlighted a key leading indicator that is warning of a potential slowdown in hiring, and that's the hiring activities of temporary hiring services. And the two most recent job reports also came in below economist estimates, ending a more than year-long streak of better-than-expected job growth. Other factors that could limit future job growth includes tighter lending standards and a potential strike by the UAW and other unions.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, UAW, Employers
☆ The Fed may be done hiking rates but there's another policy move that still poses a big risk to stocks
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon
☆ Here's why history's most reliable recession indicator no longer works
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of an imminent recession. In July 2022, the inverted yield curve once again turned negative as the Fed continued to aggressively hike interest rates. But a Monday note from Ned Davis Research argues that the yield curve inversion indicator may no longer be a reliable leading indicator of a coming downturn. Kalish isn't alone in his skepticism of the yield curve inversion indicator. Cam Harvey, the economist and professor who first identified the yield curve as a reliable recession indicator, thinks this time is different.
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